29 March 2017

[Investing] Value Investing in 3 Equations

Value Investing is an investing idea pioneered by Benjamin Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffett. The latter used the principles and added his own to become a hybrid or sorts.

The idea is simple - buy stocks that are undervalued, because value can and will only be realised overtime. Or the popular saying "Buy a dollar for eighty cents".

However, the execution value investing varies. So the valuation techniques and the corresponding valuations are and will be different.

For me, I summarise it into 3 equations.

The Compounding Equation

Pr * (1 + R)^N
Compounding is a very important concept in investing because it accelerates wealth with time. Here, Pr represents the amount of money invested (the Principle), R is the Rate of Return, and N is the number of years invested.

The equation assumes that the returns generated from is reinvested. For a principle of $100 (Pr = 100), compound at a rate of 10% per year (R = 0.1) for 10 years (N = 10) we would get about $259. The absolute value does not look impressive, but the principle has grown over 2.5x (or 250%), averaging out about 25% a year. And we started out with only 10% in this example.

These are the three variables that make the magic work. There is a choice for each Pr and N, that is, we can choose how much we wish to invest and for how long we wish to stay invested. It is the R that is the challenging part because it really depends on the quality of the business, and I think this is the essence of value investing.

My blog is about finding this R reliably.

The Accounting Equation

A = L + E
This simple equation that quietly resembles a beverage is the next important equation. A stands for Assets, L Liabilities and E Equities. These three entities form the basis of a Balance Sheet. The equation basically means that the assets that a company owns must be supported by some form of liability (debts and loans, for example) or from investors' money (equities).

From this equation, we can also interpret that Creditors (from the L part) and Investors (from the E part) have rights to claim assets. To put it into the investors (that's us) perspective, we can arrange the equation and it will be clear.
A - L = E
That's right. Investors can claim whatever that is left after deducting liabilities - debts and taxes have to be paid first, unfortunately. Hence as an investor, we would want to consider a company with maximal assets and minimal liabilities. In another words, we are looking for financially strong companies.

Assets are generally regarded as necessities to conduct business, which general revenue, and thus profits. Hence assets has to be studied for their quality and also effectiveness, because more assets may not directly equate to better prospects. The next equation is linked to the effectiveness of the deployment of assets.

The Income Equation

P = R - Ex
Here, Profit (P) is Revenue (R) less Expenses (Ex). To be profitable, R must be maximised, and Ex minimised. A company's profitably by and large depends on how they generate revenue through deployment of assets and minimise expenses through efficient business conduct. So it goes back to the efficiency of assets deployment.

The simplest way to assess the efficiency is using the ratio P/A or the return on assets.


These three equations look simple, but they have profoun impact on how we look at companies financials and our decision on whether a company's stock is investment-worthy. And I shall attempt to discuss them in depth in my future entries.

Such is value investing.

~ZF

24 March 2017

[PSA] Singtel Vs Circles.Life - Guess Who Won Me Over?

No politically-correct nonsense such 'It depends on what you want'.

I was a Singtel customer for as long as I could remember. Along the years I grew tired of their 'Make Everyday Better' nonsense.

Seriously, for Combo 2, the cheapest post-paid plan with decent data (2GB), it costs $42.90 a month and comes with the following:
Outgoing Calls : 200min
Incoming Calls : Free
Local SMS/MMS : 1000
Others : 2GB Singtel WIFI
It does not come with caller-ID, which costs $5 a month. This amounts to $47.90, and with GST, it becomes $51.25. This is on top of additional one-time activation fee, which one might have to beg to get it waived.

Honestly I do not know who uses SMS that excessively nowadays - when there's no data perhaps? It is probably worthwhile before the mobile data era, but I think we have long past that. Giving 1000 SMS free is akin to giving $50 credits which I do not use. Not sure what value it was trying to add for me. And the free Singtel WIFI is a joke because it is slow and is near non-existent.

Along the way, they added more nonsense like the X2 and X3 data bundle, for $5.90/mth and $9.90/mth respectively. For the Combo 2, I will have 4GB, and 6GB, of data (how nice!) if I signed up the X2 or X3 respectively, but I will have to pay  $57.56 and $61.85 correspondingly. This probably makes sense with the more expensive combo plans that are bundle with more data. Then again, the subscription to those plans are normally some celestial numbers. For example, a Combo 4 that comes with 4GB will make me poorer by at least $82.90 (without GST and caller ID) every month. A Combo 12 plans is in the $200s. [You see, $10 for the X3 plans over $200-ish monthly subscription is almost negligible.]

Then came Circles.Life.

I shunned it when it started after learning that it rents M1's infrastructure. From my experience, M1 signal is not very good. I was holding out for myRepublic to win the 4th telco bid (oh, I switch from Singtel Broadband to myRepublic, another story I will share in another time), but I was gravely disappointed when they did not win the bid by a close margin. [I was on a SIM-only plan with Singtel while waiting. I shall not elaborate how expensive it was and packed full of nonsensical stuff that I do not use, as more details can be found in their website.]

Circles.Life plans are easy to understand. For $28 a month for a basic 2GB plan, you get:
Outgoing Calls : 100min
Incoming Calls : None (+$2/mth to opt for this option)
Local SMS/MMS : None  (Incoming SMS is free, and it charges $0.05 for each SMS used)
Others : Free caller-ID, Whatsapp data is waived, 4G speed, data bonuses
There is more allowance for customisation (add SMS, talk time, data, etc) in their app. What's more it allows you to boost your data by small increments such as by 100MB for $2.50 and not a 1GB for $10.95. It may sound ridiculous here, but I think it makes sense because when there's a need to boost data at the end of the billing cycle, $2.50 beats $10 without having excessive balance data which you cannot really bring to the next cycle. Then again, with the many data bonuses, I doubt there is a need to boost the data per se, but my point is there are more rational options in Circles.Life.

I ported my number over and received a 1GB bonus and another 1GB for activating the app. And because there was some new year promotion, I am now holding on to 7GB of data every month for up till July this year. After that, I will still have at least 4GB.

There is also a loyalty rewards: for every 6months I stay with the telco, I receive 500MB of data. That is a 1GB data per year. Also, if I refer my friend and they uses my code (which is AXBX4 by the way), they get $20 registration fees waived when they sign up/port over, and I get 200MB of data as long as they stay with the telco.

I also received a 500MB bonus data as a birthday treat. This is valid for a month once activated and the bonus expires 2mths after the birthday month.

And all these for $30/mth (because I got the free-incoming calls option).

And recently they came up with the 20GB for $20 add-on. I notice some people may not understand that it is an add-on and not a plan by itself. So should I sign up for that, I pay $50/mth for a whopping 24GB of data. (Remember a Combo 12 is $200++/mth?).

Then what about quality?

Initially I was not expecting too much for the cheaper price. Afterall, staying with Singtel has 'taught' me that I have to pay for 'better service'. However,  I do not have any complaints with the connectivity after 3 months into the service. Customer service was good - everything can be done through the app and no need to wait for 45min on the call listening to things like 'Your call is important to us'. I am sorry for those who have had bad customer experience with Circles.Life, but so far I am satisfied - their response is prompt and my problems got solved promptly.

How about roaming?

I have yet to test this. So I cannot comment.

If you wish to find out and take a leap, you can sign up or port over here. Remember to use my code AXBX4!

By the way, I am just sharing my experience with Circles.Life. I am not endorsed or anything by them.

~ZF